What shocks modern day America?

After reading Homer-Dixon’s, Kahl’s, Hendrix’s and Thiesen’s thoughts on the connection between the environment and conflict, I felt certain about one thing: sudden scarcities or abundances of natural resources provoke a social reaction, seemingly one of conflict. One thing common in these studies was that they were focused on developing countries. Particularly while reading Hendrix’s newfound correlation between rainfall and social conflict in sub-Saharan Africa, I could not help but wonder if there was a similar event in third-world countries such as our own America that would illicit a similar response.

I do not think a drought or a sudden abundance of water would affect America the same way it does sub-Saharan Africa. When I attempt to think of a resource that Americans get easily frustrated about, the first thing that comes to mind is gas for our beloved cars. Although I was fortunate enough to be stranded in New Orleans during Hurricane Sandy, far away from any chaos, I had many conversations with my mother who was at home on Long Island, New York. She told me about gas shortages and that the lines for the gas pumps were longer than the streets. In the news I recall seeing stories of fights and even one about a gun being pulled at a crowded station. In places such as the suburban sprawl of the New York metropolitan area, people strongly rely on their cars. They use them to get to work, to school, to grocery stores and doctors appointments. Without a car, most people on Long Island feel stranded and helpless. After all these years of development, this type of suburbia is rampant in America and other countries like it. I believe a sudden shortage of gas would elicit some type of social conflict in the same way that rainfall did in Hendrix’s study, although not likely to the same extreme.

            One difference between America and sub-Saharan Africa is the way in which we receive our resources. Other than water, most Americans get their food and beverages away from home. If there is an abundant shortage of rain causing a shortage in food, we mostly just see it as a raise in prices. However, getting to work is another story. Almost nine in ten Americans drive to work, and nearly all of them are alone. When people see a threat to their gas, they see a threat to their source of income and their connection to food. They also see at threat to their comforts in life, such as their after school activities or nights out on the town. In a way, gas to their cars is a factor in their survival. In my opinion, only a water shortage could cause as immediate of a conflict as a gas shortage, and even so – would gas not be necessary to distribute emergency water rations if such a conflict were to arise?

In sub-Saharan Africa, most people do not have a car nor do they use one to get to work or grocery stores. Their connection to food, water, and income is much more direct and the effects of a shortage are felt much quicker as well as stronger. The conflict here would certainly be much more serious and have dire consequences, and is also guaranteed to happen much more often (for now at least).

Hendrix found that an abundance of rainfall was more directly correlated with violent conflict than a shortage was. Would it be this way with oil in America as well? Intuitively, I do not think so… But if I remember anything from economics, an abundance of oil would definitely create a drop in prices. If the drop was big enough would people surge to the gas pumps to fill up extra containers, seeing an opportunity they should not miss? Would that idea be so common that there would be fights over it? Somehow, I do not think so. In class discussion we wondered if a surge in rainfall caused rebellion leaders to feel more comfortable starting conflict because their soldiers would be well-quenched. Here we find another difference between sub-Saharan Africa and America: American society is much more stable in terms of poverty, sickness, ethnic conflict and civilian vs. government conflict. There are currently no known rebellion groups in America that are a large enough threat to the government to the point that gas would have an effect on their activities, and no known ongoing violent wars between different groups. A drop in gas prices and thus a perceived surge in gas availability would not cause the same advantage-taking reaction in America.

            As we can see, although people in developed countries are human and have responses to threats to their survival, there is a difference between the type of conflict and the seriousness of it. In sub-Saharan Africa, conflict caused by shocks in resource abundance has been and will be responsible for hundreds of thousands of deaths, if not millions. So far in America, gas shortage has led to a small amount of deaths and a lot of frustrated, yelling people in the street. Worse yet, rain shocks in Africa are much more common than gas shocks in America and will only increase as time goes on and climate change accelerates. The biggest and most important question is: What does everyone’s future hold? How will climate change affect us all, no matter how different our current lives?